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  • 🔵 The Quantum Insider Weekly | TTimelines? Trillion-Dollar Bets. And More News in Quantum

🔵 The Quantum Insider Weekly | TTimelines? Trillion-Dollar Bets. And More News in Quantum

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FROM THE EDITOR.

For best effect, pretend Werner Herzog is narrating this piece:

My mind — perhaps numbed by weeks of subzero temperatures and the unrelenting darkness of a January that seemed to stretch into mid-February — kept returning to Pascal’s wager, the philosophical thought experiment that examines the utility of believing in God.

This week, however, the wager felt less theological and more technological.

Google’s call to prepare for cryptographically relevant quantum computers, combined with Citi’s estimate that a major quantum-enabled cyberattack could put trillions of dollars of GDP at risk, was the main inspiration

Here is my quantum version:

If cryptographically relevant quantum computers arrive and you prepared, you avoid catastrophe.
If they arrive and you did not prepare, you face systemic failure.
If they do not arrive on your timeline and you’re prepared anyway, you modernized your security infrastructure.

That asymmetry is the point.

You can be wrong about the timing and still be safe. You cannot be wrong about the timing and be unprepared.

I would call it Pasqal’s wager — but I think that name’s taken.

Have a great weekend, and thanks for reading.

— Matt, Chief Content Officer at The Quantum Insider

INSIDER BRIEF.

The Noteworthy & Nuanced

Researchers have demonstrated lattice surgery on superconducting qubits, enabling a fault-tolerant quantum operation between logical qubits while actively correcting errors. Using surface-code error correction, the team split a single logical qubit encoded in 17 physical qubits into two entangled logical qubits, overcoming constraints imposed by fixed, two-dimensional chip layouts.

Pakistan will host its first national Quantum Computing Hackathon from February 6–8 at the National Centre for Physics, bringing together early-career researchers to develop quantum solutions aligned with UN Sustainable Development Goals. Organized by PIEAS and NILOP under PAEC, with support from NCP, Open Quantum Initiatives, and CERN, the event drew over 950 applications nationwide. Forty-two selected participants will form seven teams, receiving expert mentorship and access to quantum processing units during the three-day program.

Welinq has launched its rack-mounted Entangled Photon Pair Source commercially and delivered its first unit to a European institution, expanding the availability of on-premise components for quantum networking. The product generates entangled photons for quantum communication links and quantum computer interconnects, and is compatible with multiple quantum computing platforms. — Alan Kanapin, Analyst at The Quantum Insider

The Research Rundown

Check out this week’s handpicked quantum research. These are studies headed for real-world impact: improving accuracy, reducing latency, using fewer resources, or solving problems that classical methods struggle with. These are early developments, but they hint at where quantum might earn its keep.

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01Quantum will host a live strategic briefing on February 26, 2026, focused on securing AI inference against adversarial threats, as part of the 2026 Year of Quantum Security, in partnership with The Quantum Insider. The 60-minute session will examine how government and enterprise organizations can protect AI prompts, models, and outputs from extraction, inversion, and long-term cryptographic risk using post-quantum security approaches that integrate into existing systems without disruption. With speakers including Andrew Cheung (01Quantum), Brian Lenahan (Quantum Strategy Institute), and Kristin Milchanowski (BMO), the briefing targets decision-makers navigating emerging compliance, procurement, and trust requirements as AI deployment outpaces current security models.

➡️ Senior Google executives are warning that large-scale quantum computers could break today’s widely used public-key encryption sooner than many expect, urging governments and critical infrastructure operators to accelerate post-quantum preparations.

➡️ They caution that malicious actors may already be conducting “store now, decrypt later” operations, harvesting encrypted data today for future quantum decryption.

➡️ The post highlights advances in quantum research that have reduced the estimated resources required to crack schemes such as 2048-bit RSA, increasing urgency around migration timelines.

➡️ Google says it began experimenting with post-quantum cryptography in 2016 and is now expanding PQC protections across its infrastructure, while calling for coordinated adoption of NIST’s 2024 standards.

Analyst Commentary

Most companies are accused — sometimes fairly, sometimes unfairly — of hyping their own technologies. That’s why Google’s post deserves our attention.

This is not a product announcement written by a marketing team. It is a policy-facing document authored by Kent Walker, president of global affairs at Google and Alphabet, and Hartmut Neven, founder and lead of Google Quantum AI — two senior executives with visibility into both geopolitical risk and the trajectory of quantum hardware. These are senior, respected members of their respective communities. When figures at that level publicly warn that existing encryption “could easily be broken” by a future large-scale quantum computer, it means something.

The post does not claim such a machine exists today. It lays out that because the timeline is uncertain enough — and progress steady enough — static planning assumptions are no longer defensible. Over the past decade, quantum research has lowered the estimated resources required to break widely deployed cryptographic systems (note: Iceberg Quantum actually reported on an advance in this direction this week) while simultaneously improving the performance of quantum devices in chemistry and materials simulation. That dual progress compresses the psychological distance between scientific promise and security risk.

If timelines aren’t shrinking enough for you, the post acknowledges the “store now, decrypt later” warning. Even without a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, adversaries can accumulate encrypted financial records, health data or government communications now and wait. For sectors with long data lifetimes — defense, infrastructure, health care — the relevant risk horizon is not when a quantum computer arrives, but when sensitive data expires. Essentially, the timeline has shrunk to “now”.

Google’s emphasis on “crypto agility” is less flashy but more important. The ability to swap cryptographic algorithms without rebuilding entire systems may determine which institutions navigate the transition smoothly and which become trapped in legacy architectures. That operational framing suggests quantum risk is not a single breakthrough moment but a migration effort measured in years, something that should be tenable for all organizations if executed properly.

The broader policy recommendations also reveal strategic intent. The call to embed post-quantum cryptography into AI systems from the outset signals recognition that AI will sit atop digital infrastructure that must remain secure for decades. The warning against global standards fragmentation indicates that partial adoption could weaken the overall system. And the push for cloud-first modernization reflects a pragmatic assessment that retrofitting hard-coded legacy systems will be expensive and slow.

This week’s other developments reinforce the stakes. A new Citi Institute report estimates that a quantum-enabled cyberattack disrupting a major U.S. bank’s access to Fedwire could put between $2.0 trillion and $3.3 trillion of U.S. GDP at risk. That figure reframes quantum computing not as a distant laboratory achievement, but as a systemic financial exposure. Fedwire is not an abstract protocol; it is core plumbing of the U.S. payments system. When analysis begins quantifying quantum risk in trillions of dollars rather than qubits, the policy conversation shifts.

Overall, the message emerging from industry and finance is not that catastrophe is imminent. It is that complacency is no longer rational. The arrival date of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer remains uncertain. But the cost and complexity of migrating global digital infrastructure are known — and they are substantial.

The responsible posture is neither dismissal nor alarmism. It is disciplined preparation. The Google executives are effectively arguing that quantum computing’s promise and its risks are inseparable — and that institutional readiness, not technological bravado, will determine how the era unfolds.

Caution is warranted. Panic is not.

DATA SPOTLIGHT.

PacketLight Networks and NEC demonstrated quantum key distribution over a 400G dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) network using a dual-fiber setup. They integrated NEC’s QKD system with PacketLight’s PL-4000M 600G Muxponder, achieving 100% data throughput and low latency, verified via a 100GbE tester. The QKD ran over a dedicated parallel fiber, maintaining quantum signal integrity. The result: a cost-effective, scalable quantum-safe model with zero performance tradeoffs on existing high-capacity infrastructure.

INDUSTRY HIGHLIGHTS.

🚀 Infleqtion is partnering with NASA JPL on the Quantum Gravity Gradiometer Pathfinder mission to launch the first standalone neutral-atom quantum gravity sensor into low Earth orbit around 2030. Backed by over $20 million in funding, the mission will demonstrate space-based quantum sensing to measure Earth’s gravitational field with higher sensitivity.

💰️ NIST has awarded $3.19 million in Phase II SBIR funding to eight small businesses to support 24-month R&D prototyping projects across AI, biotech, semiconductors, quantum technologies, imaging, cybersecurity, and energy systems. The selected companies will advance technologies ranging from quantum photon sources to medical imaging tools and grid optimization.

🤝 QuiX Quantum and Artilux have signed an MoU to integrate advanced semiconductor-based photonic detectors into photonic quantum computing systems, aiming to improve manufacturability and reduce cooling and infrastructure demands. The collaboration supports the development of energy-efficient, data center–compatible quantum hardware designed for scalable deployment in HPC environments.

🔒️ 01 Quantum has completed the Token Generation Event for $qONE on HyperEVM, with the token now trading on Hyperliquid, establishing the on-chain foundation for its qONE Security Protocol. The rollout will progressively integrate IronCAP post-quantum cryptography, zero-knowledge proofs, and quantum-resistant authorization mechanisms to secure Web3 assets without requiring base-layer blockchain changes.

📚️ Universum Labs and NEUROssance have signed an MoU to co-found QUALIA, an international consortium dedicated to building research-grounded cognitive infrastructure for quantum and AI education. The alliance will conduct empirical learning research, design educational frameworks, and coordinate global initiatives to bridge the gap between rapidly advancing intelligence technologies and human capacity to understand and govern them.

🛡️ Orange Business and Cisco have launched post-quantum cryptography–secured WAN services across Orange’s global network, making it the first European provider to offer PQC-enabled connectivity using Cisco 8000 Series Secure Routers. The collaboration centers on crypto-agile, centrally managed SD-WAN architectures designed to mitigate “harvest now, decrypt later” risks.

🏦 A Citi Institute report warns that a quantum-enabled cyberattack disrupting a major U.S. bank’s access to Fedwire could place $2–$3.3 trillion of GDP at risk, framing quantum computing as a systemic financial stability threat. While post-quantum cryptography standards exist, the report argues that “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks are already exposing long-lived data, and that large-scale migration across legacy systems is now the central execution challenge for governments and financial institutions.

🌐 Nu Quantum has opened a new trapped-ion quantum networking lab in Cambridge, doubling its R&D capacity to advance distributed quantum computing and validate its Qubit-Photon Interface technology for linking processors via scalable photonic networks. Backed by a $60 million Series A and collaborations with UK research and industry partners, the facility supports modular, modality-agnostic quantum networking development.

⚡️ Infleqtion has launched a $6.2 million ARPA-E ENCODE project to apply quantum-enhanced computing to optimize U.S. energy grid operations as rising electrification and AI workloads strain classical systems.

🎮️ Researchers at the University of Barcelona have launched Quantum Tycoon, a free educational game that introduces quantum computing concepts through a strategy-based simulation where players manage a quantum company using real algorithms like Grover’s.

🤑 Churchill Capital Corp X shareholders largely declined to redeem shares ahead of its merger with Infleqtion Inc., preserving nearly all of the SPAC’s trust account and enabling Infleqtion to receive over $550 million in gross proceeds, including more than $125 million from a PIPE financing.

💰️ Firgun Ventures, a new $250 million London-based quantum fund, made its first investment in Photonic Inc., which is developing fault-tolerant systems using a silicon-based, photonics-integrated architecture and has been selected by DARPA as having a credible path to utility-scale quantum computing.

🔗 Photonic Inc. and TELUS demonstrated quantum teleportation over 30 km of existing commercial fibre, transferring quantum information into a matter-based processor using Photonic’s Entanglement First™ architecture.

🥼 The U.S. National Science Foundation will invest up to $100 million to launch the NSF National Quantum and Nanotechnology Infrastructure (NQNI), a five-year network of up to 16 open-access facilities providing shared fabrication tools, characterization equipment, and technical expertise.

🌴 Palm Beach State College received a $4.95 million grant from the Florida Job Growth Grant Fund to launch a modular workforce training program in quantum-era computing and post-quantum cybersecurity, targeting applied roles in secure communications, defense, and financial infrastructure.

🇸🇬 Singapore will invest $37 billion through 2030 under its Research, Innovation and Enterprise plan with quantum technology identified as a strategic priority and public R&D spending maintained at about 1% of GDP annually. The initiative includes hosting Quantinuum’s most powerful system outside the U.S. and expanding global partnerships to anchor high-value quantum supply chain activity in the city-state.

EVENTS.

Feb. 13 -- African International Conference on Quantum Computing and Simulation will be held at KNUST in Kumasi, Ghana, focusing on quantum computing, algorithms, simulation techniques, and capacity building across Africa.

Feb. 18-19 -- 5th NIST QMMS Workshop  will take place at the NIST Gaithersburg campus in Maryland, USA, bringing together researchers to discuss quantum phenomena in emerging materials.

Feb. 18-20 – Quantum Days 2026, Canada’s flagship quantum science and technology conference, will take place at the Victoria Conference Centre in Victoria, British Columbia. Registration closes Feb. 4.

Feb. 25 -- Is Quantum Sensing Ready for Business Adoption will be held at Digital Catapult in London, UK, examining real-world adoption and commercialization challenges of quantum sensing technologies.

March 3-6 -- SIAM Conference on Parallel Processing for Scientific Computing (SIAM SC26), Berlin.

March 16-20 -- Quantum Resources will be held in Tokyo, Japan. The conference brings together leading experts and emerging voices in the field to explore the latest theoretical insights, operational applications, and future directions of quantum resource theories.

March 23 -- Fujitsu to Host UK-Focused Quantum Webinar on Practical Value for Financial Services. Register for the session here.

March 24 -- Quantum Security & Defence -- Taking place at the Palais des Congrès de Paris, this half-day event convenes industry, government, and research leaders to address quantum security and defence challenges, including quantum-secure communications, certification paths, and practical deployment strategies amid the rising Quantum-AI era.

March 24 -- Convergence Quantum II (CQII) hosted by The Convergence Center for Applied Quantum Computing at The Engine in Kendall Square, Cambridge, MA, defines the next generation of drug discovery through applied quantum use cases, biopharma insights and investor perspectives,

April 6-8 -- International Conference on Quantum Communications, Networking, and Computing (QCNC 2026) -- Taking place in Kobe, Japan, this IEEE-hosted conference covers advances in quantum communications, networking, computing, cryptography, and related systems, featuring research presentations and industry discussions across key tracks in the field.

April 9–11 -- TQCEBT 2026 -- Hosted at CHRIST University’s Pune Lavasa Campus in India, this interdisciplinary event explores quantum computing advancements alongside emerging business technology applications, bringing together researchers, practitioners, and business leaders.

Apr 22–23 -- Mathematics & Physics Frontiers 2026 in Frankfurt, Germany is an international forum uniting mathematicians, physicists, engineers, data scientists, and technology innovators from across the globe to explore groundbreaking advances at the intersection of theory and application.

April 27-30 -- The Quantum Matter International Conference & Expo (QUANTUMatter2026) will take place at the Barceló Sants Hotel in Barcelona.

June 4-5 -- Q2B Tokyo 2026 will be held exclusively in-person and presented in Japanese and English, with real-time interpretation.

June 16 -- France Quantum -- the premier event showcasing the French Quantum ecosystem to the world.

June 22-24 -- IQT Nordics: Oslo, Norway

June 24-26 -- Quantum. Tech World: Boston, Mass

June 25-26 -- Quantum.Tech World -- Empowering Quantum, AI & HPC at Enterprise -- Scale, co-located with Quantum.Tech World will be held at Encore Boston Harbor in Boston, United States.

June 25-26 -- Quantum.Tech World -- Empowering Quantum, AI & HPC at Enterprise -- Scale, co-located with Quantum.Tech World will be held at Encore Boston Harbor in Boston, United States.

July 1-3 -- The 2026 IEEE International Conference on Quantum Control, Computing, and Learning (IEEE qCCL 2026) will take place from Wednesday to Friday, July 1-3, 2026Do You Need Quantum on a Regular Basis?